When Fred Hoiberg is sharing a table with Jay Z, 9 times out of a 10 a NBA draft lottery is going down. Tonight the Minnesota TWolves will find out just how long their road to rebuilding is going to be. At the top of the board sits Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, the Durant & Oden of ’08. A few spots back lurks Brook Lopez. (blaaaach) The early talk is that the fix is in for Knicks to pull the Ewing Switcharoo and resurrect their currently sorry-ass franchise following the Isiah administration. As much as Stern would like to see a winner in New York again, these boys have consistently embarrassed themselves and the league the past few seasons. Plus there is no way he pulls some commish magic to put either of these youngsters on a squad with Curry, Randolph and Starbury. Here are the other top mathematical contenders for the top pick and the reasons why they will or won’t be granted a Rose or Bease.
Miami Heat (46% chance of top 2 pick) Miami is getting one of these kids for sure. I see Rose in Miami because the idea of DRose and DWade in the same backcourt gives David Stern a chubby. Hell, it kind of gives me a chubby. The D brothers with Marion plus all the vets that will sign for pesos to get on that train means one more solid team in the East to play with the Celts, Pistons and LeBron. Adjusted Likelihood 80%
Seattle/ OK City (39%) This has been a pretty ugly divorce between the NBA and Seattle and the last thing you want to do when you are going through something like that is throw another kid into the mix. The idea of Rose/Durant or Beasley/Durant will be tempting for Mr. Stern, but as long as the ink isn’t dry on the settlement papers I just don’t see it. 10%
Minnesota (28%) There is no great reason for the NBA to put one of its rising superstars in the Minneapolis, except for the fact that they owe us one. Going back to just 13 months ago, the Wolves were trying to find a suitor for Garnett but were insisting that they wouldn’t make a deal just to make a deal, they wanted to make the right deal. The draft comes and goes and suddenly we are sending KG to play with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in exchange for Al Jefferson, a pick and spare parts. (With the possible exception of Telfair. I’ll go TBD on that one.) The league suddenly has one of its storied franchises with a dynamo team in the East. Good for the league, not so good for Minnesota. I see some compensation showing up tonight. 50%
Memphis (28%) See: Timberwolves, Minnesota. Greg Popovich, on the Pau Gasol deal, “What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension. There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense.” Memphis made a much more asinine deal than the Wolves and in return perhaps they are to be rewarded tonight. There is also the Rose Stays in Memphis storyline, but you can only run so far on that when the city is Memphis and the subject is basketball. These guys seem like a good place to hide OJ Mayo too. 45%
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